Florida and Texas Are Losing the Housing Race. Ohio Just Came Out on Top
The U.S. housing market has shifted sharply from the pandemic boom, with buyers gaining leverage in many parts of the country. In Florida and Texas, that change is showing up through higher inventory and weaker pricing power, while Ohio is standing out for relative affordability and steadier demand. Data published April 21, 2026, points to a market where the Sunbelt no longer has the same edge it had just a few years ago.
Sunbelt metros are now the most lopsided buyer markets
Redfin data released in July showed sellers outnumbering buyers nationwide by nearly 2 to 1, confirming that the U.S. is firmly a buyer’s market. The most lopsided markets were concentrated in the Sunbelt, with Miami at 140%, Nashville at 129%, Houston at 124%, San Antonio at 117%, and Austin at 112%, according to the report. Redfin senior economist Asad Khan said affordability remains the biggest hurdle, even as buyers now have more room to negotiate on price, repairs, and closing costs.
Separate analysis published in April by ResiClub founder Lance Lambert showed how much some Texas markets have cooled since their pandemic highs. Home prices in the Austin metro were 27.8% below their 2022 peak at that point, while national home prices rose just 0.8% year over year between March 2025 and March 2026, based on the Zillow Home Value Index. Lambert also stated that 89 of the 300 largest U.S. housing markets posted year-over-year price declines in March.
Ohio is holding steadier than Florida and Texas
Ohio metros have not been immune to the national slowdown, but the numbers look notably different. Redfin data showed Cincinnati and Columbus as modest buyer’s markets at 37.2% and 40.5%, while Cleveland ranked as one of the rare balanced markets in the country. Realtor.com data placed Cleveland’s median home price around $150,000, compared with about $625,000 in Miami.
The pricing gap is one reason Ohio has gained attention from younger buyers and remote workers. Redfin reported Columbus home prices were up more than 7% year over year, with a median sale price of $301,000, while Zillow data put Columbus average home prices closer to $250,000 in a separate measure. The full list of individual neighborhoods seeing the strongest demand in Ohio has not been publicly detailed in the source material, but Toledo was ranked the fourth-hottest housing market for 2026 by Realtor.com, with projected price growth of 13.1%.
Affordability and ownership costs are driving the shift
The biggest factor behind this turn is affordability, according to Redfin, ResiClub, and Realtor.com data cited in the report. During the pandemic, Florida and Texas benefited from remote work, lower taxes, and heavy homebuilding, but Lambert said overbuilding in states including Texas and Florida pushed active inventory above pre-pandemic 2019 levels. In that setup, prices are more likely to stay flat or decline than rise quickly.
In Florida, ownership costs have become a bigger issue beyond the list price. Redfin said climate risk, rising condo HOA fees, and insurance costs are reshaping demand, while Insurify data showed the average annual premium in Florida at $8,292, or about 181% above the national average. In Texas, higher property taxes and insurance costs tied to hail, tornado, and Gulf hurricane risk have weakened the affordability math, while Ohio markets continue to benefit from lower home prices and job anchors such as the roughly $20 billion Intel project near Columbus and the Cleveland Clinic.
