Scientists say we are closer to a Carrington event than ever before, and it could send the world into darkness
Solar activity is getting closer to a peak in the Sun’s 11-year cycle, and U.S. agencies have been tracking stronger geomagnetic storm conditions in 2024. That has renewed attention on the Carrington Event, the massive 1859 solar storm that scientists still use as the benchmark for a worst-case space weather disaster. For Americans, the concern is not the aurora itself but what a modern version could do to power, travel, and communications systems that did not exist in 1859.
Federal agencies are tracking stronger solar storm activity
On May 10, 2024, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center issued a rare severe geomagnetic storm watch at G4 conditions, the first watch at that level in nearly 20 years, according to the agency. NOAA said several coronal mass ejections were expected to reach Earth, raising the chance of disruptions to power systems, spacecraft operations, and high-frequency radio communications.
The Carrington Event took place in September 1859, when a major solar eruption disrupted telegraph systems across multiple regions, according to long-standing historical records cited by federal space weather agencies. Scientists use that 1859 event as the standard comparison because it remains the most intense geomagnetic storm documented in modern history.
NOAA and NASA have both said the Sun is approaching or has reached the most active phase of Solar Cycle 25 in 2024. That matters because stronger solar activity increases the odds of flares and coronal mass ejections that can interact with Earth’s magnetic field.
What a major storm could mean across the United States
In the U.S., officials have confirmed that severe geomagnetic storms can interfere with electric transmission, GPS navigation, aviation communications, and some satellite services. NOAA has said impacts can include voltage control problems on power systems and degraded radio signals, especially at high latitudes, though the exact scale of any outage would depend on the storm’s path and intensity.
What is not yet known is how a true Carrington-level event would play out across specific states, cities, or local utilities. Federal agencies have not released any prediction showing which U.S. regions would lose power first in such a scenario, and modern infrastructure resilience varies by operator and grid design.
For travelers, the most immediate confirmed concern is transportation and navigation technology. The Federal Aviation Administration and space weather forecasters have long monitored solar storms because aviation routes, GPS-dependent systems, and some communications links can be affected during major events.
Why scientists are paying closer attention now
The main reason for the warning is timing. Solar Cycle 25 has intensified faster than many early forecasts expected, and NOAA and NASA said in 2024 that the cycle’s maximum period has arrived earlier and with stronger activity than initially projected.
Researchers also focus on risk because today’s infrastructure is more exposed than it was in 1859. The North American power grid, satellite networks, mobile communications, and timing systems used by banks and transportation all rely on technologies that can be disrupted by geomagnetic disturbances, according to federal preparedness planning.
For residents, that means the issue is less about a single forecast and more about a known national vulnerability. U.S. agencies continue to monitor solar activity in real time, and NOAA has said alerts and storm scales are issued when conditions warrant, giving utilities, airlines, and satellite operators notice as space weather develops.
