The biggest El Niño since 1950 could turn this winter upside down
The 2023-24 winter outlook arrived as ocean temperatures and global weather records continued to break across the Pacific and beyond. On November 9, 2023, NOAA said a strong El Niño was in place and noted that this event could become one of the most significant since records began in 1950. For travelers, commuters, and anyone planning for winter in the US, that raises the odds of a season with very different conditions depending on where you live.
NOAA says a top-tier El Niño is in place
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced on November 9, 2023, that El Niño conditions were strong enough to shape the entire US winter pattern, with forecasters putting the chance of El Niño lasting through April 2024 at more than 95 percent. In the same outlook, NOAA said there was a 71 percent chance the event would rank as strong, based on sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
The agency tied that outlook to warmer-than-average ocean waters and a shift in tropical Pacific winds that meteorologists track every month. NOAA stated that only a handful of El Niño events since 1950 have reached the strongest category, which is why this winter outlook drew unusual attention. The World Meteorological Organization also said in 2023 that El Niño had developed after seven years without a strong event.
What the US could see this winter
NOAA’s winter outlook showed the clearest wet signal across the southern tier of the country, including California, the Gulf Coast, and parts of the Southeast. The same November 2023 map favored warmer-than-average temperatures from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes, while parts of the Southwest and South were given higher odds of a wetter season.
What is confirmed is the forecast pattern, not the exact number of storms or snowfall totals for any city. NOAA has not released city-by-city winter outcomes months in advance, and local snowfall in places like Denver, Chicago, or Boston can still swing on short-term storms. In past strong El Niño winters, the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies have sometimes leaned drier than average, but NOAA said local outcomes can still vary week to week.
Why El Niño matters for travel and daily life
El Niño happens when sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific run above average for overlapping three-month periods, altering the jet stream that steers US storms, according to NOAA. That change often pushes the southern jet stream into a more active pattern, which can mean more rain and flood risk in states such as California, Texas, Louisiana, and Florida during winter.
For residents and travelers, that can translate into airport delays, mountain snow swings, and sharp differences between regions during the same week. NOAA said the winter outlook covers December 2023 through February 2024, and the agency updates shorter-range forecasts regularly as storms develop. The broad signal is set, but the exact impacts for any one state or metro area will depend on how individual systems track over the next several months.
